As one of the important micro-indicators for observing economic operation, excavator sales data is widely concerned by the market. Recently, the China Construction Machinery Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Association") released statistics showing that from January to May 2023, major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 93,052 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%; of which domestic sales were 44,933, A year-on-year decrease of 43.9%; exports of 48,119 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%.

A reporter from "Securities Daily" called Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd., a first-line excavator manufacturer, as an investor. The relevant person in charge of the company said that the company's recent shipments of excavator equipment are normal, and the capacity utilization rate is not particularly saturated. But it can reach the state of 70% to 80%. He said, "The demand for excavators in the international market has been very high this year, and the export data of the company's excavator equipment is very satisfactory, and the demand in the domestic market as a whole is relatively weak."

Wang Chengyang, senior investment manager of Kuwang Investment, told the reporter of Securities Daily that since the beginning of this year, the United States, Europe, the Middle East and other regions and countries have increased investment in infrastructure construction and mining and other fields. Demand expands accordingly. Judging from the current development of domestic terminal demand, it is expected that the start-up of infrastructure projects during the year will maintain an optimistic momentum as a whole, and real estate investment is expected to recover in the second half of the year. Significant growth.

Export sales return to growth trend

Association data show that in May 2023, major excavator manufacturers sold 16,809 excavators of various types, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, of which domestic sales were 6,592 units, a year-on-year decrease of 45.9%; exports were 10,217 units, a year-on-year increase of 21%.

Compared with April, the sales of various excavators in the domestic market in May decreased by 2921 units, a month-on-month decrease of about 30.71%, and the downward trend continued; export sales increased by 958 units, a month-on-month increase of about 10.35%, returning to the growth trend.

In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, Luo Timing, a senior investment consultant at Dongfang Hi-Tech, said that the sales volume of excavators in the domestic market has been declining year-on-year for several consecutive months, and the month-on-month data is not satisfactory in April and May this year. , which is mainly affected by factors such as the slowdown of real estate investment as a terminal and changes in demand for infrastructure investment, resulting in relatively poor sales data of domestic excavators.

Wang Chengyang added that looking at the long-term perspective, the domestic construction machinery industry has entered a downward cycle since the second half of 2021. The decline in domestic excavator sales in May this year was partly due to the impact of this cycle. On the other hand, the switch from "National III" to "National IV" standard has led to the preposition of some purchase demand, superimposed on the above factors, and together lead to weak current domestic demand for excavators.

"In terms of the international market, in addition to demand factors, domestic construction machinery manufacturers on the supply side seize the opportunity to gain recognition from overseas markets by virtue of high-tech strength, cost-effective products and services, and realize the export of domestic construction machinery products such as excavators. Substantial growth." Wang Chengyang said.

As for when the demand in the domestic excavator market will be released, Luo Timing said that it is expected to be in the fourth quarter of 2023. "The industry's research and judgment on the recovery of real estate sales data mostly focus on this point in time. At the same time, the intensity of demand release also depends on the macro economy. The degree of recovery, as well as the activity of real estate investment and the degree of industrial prosperity."

Liu Youhua, deputy director of the wealth research department of Paipai.com, believes that at present, the improvement expectations of the real estate industry on the main demand side are gradually increasing. With policy support, confidence in the real estate market is also gradually recovering, and demand has entered a stage of marginal improvement. At the same time, traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure are making two-way efforts, infrastructure investment is also increasing, and the amount of construction is expected to continue to increase. Against the backdrop of stable real estate and funds, the terminal demand for excavators is expected to be released quickly in the peak season of construction in the second half of the year.

Optimistically look at the release of demand in the second half of the year

It is worth noting that although the sales of excavator equipment have not been ideal this year, the overall profitability of listed companies in the construction machinery sector of the A-share market has maintained strong resilience. According to Choice data, among the 17 listed companies in this sector, 10 achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to their parent companies in the first quarter. very optimistic.

According to the person in charge of Liugong, since the beginning of this year, driven by the strong growth of the company's international market business, the profit in the first half of the year is expected to maintain the year-on-year growth momentum of the first quarter. "Although there is no specific summary data, but according to the current operating situation Look, it is expected to maintain a positive growth state within the year, mainly driven by the company's construction machinery export business, including sales in key regions such as Russia and the entire European region. "

The relevant person in charge of Anhui Heli, a manufacturer of construction machinery and equipment, admitted frankly to the reporter of Securities Daily that the company's current shipments of construction machinery products have increased compared with the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate has reached full production. Compared with the domestic market, the export data of the company's construction machinery products are better. "It is expected that this year's revenue and profit will increase compared with last year. The target is about 10%-15%. Equipment sales are expected to increase by 30,000-40,000 units. At present, if the release of domestic demand can grow steadily, The above objectives will definitely be achieved.”

In addition, the construction machinery sector of the A-share market achieved substantial growth on June 8. Choice data shows that as of yesterday's close, the construction machinery sector index was at 1012.2 points, an increase of 2.7% on the day.

Luo Timing said that although the short-term pressure on the construction machinery track is relatively high, there is still room for future product demand to be released. With the gradual development of counter-cyclical policies, domestic demand may recover to a certain extent quarter-on-quarter. At the same time, construction machinery is my country's current advantageous industry, and Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain advantages, and operational efficiency advantages to achieve a global leading position. The key is that the overseas layout of leading enterprises is complete and has entered the harvest period. Exports will continue to maintain a growth trend, which is expected to stabilize the industry fluctuations caused by the decline in domestic sales, and the overall industry sales growth rate is expected to improve.

Wang Chengyang said that the construction machinery sector has undergone long-term adjustments and is currently at a relatively low valuation level, which deserves continued attention. An advanced investment target with cost advantages."

Source: Securities Daily